1. FC Heidenheim 1-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 42%, yet in-form Fortuna Düsseldorf provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Friday 29 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Voith-Arena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: 1. FC Heidenheim 1W, Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fortuna Düsseldorf half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 55% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 55% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.26 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.050 / defence 1.001 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.611 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.452. Data: 31 1. FC Heidenheim games / 31 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 42% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 23%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortuna Düsseldorf (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Heidenheim 70% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 42% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.26 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.050 / def 1.001 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.611 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 3 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 42% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 1.05x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (0.61x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
42%
2.38
35%
2.88
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.15
0.89
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
7%
15.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0.89 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 31 games, going 13W 7D 11L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.23 PPG from 31 outings (9W 11D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.23 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.13 points per game from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.29 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 31 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 13W 7D 11L in their last 31 games (1.48 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 9W 11D 11L in their last 31 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.07 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 67%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 40% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 47% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 40% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-3 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.26 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.89 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.61 / defence 1.05, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 42% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 23%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Düsseldorf win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 55%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.48 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.