1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 24 April 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Heidenheim's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. 1. FC Heidenheim's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of FC St. Pauli's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC St. Pauli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
FC St. Pauli hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
It is worth noting that FC St. Pauli have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 62% and FC St. Pauli 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 68% | FC St. Pauli 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.17 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.263 / defence 1.250 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.920 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.446. 1. FC Heidenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 1. FC Heidenheim games / 6 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 50% | Draw 21% | FC St. Pauli 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.00 | Draw 4.76 | FC St. Pauli 3.33. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
FC St. Pauli lead the H2H ledger, but 1. FC Heidenheim carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 50% | Draw 21% | FC St. Pauli 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.17 / FC St. Pauli 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.263 / def 1.250 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.920 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.66
FC St. Pauli xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Voith-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 50% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 30% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli?
Record (8 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 2W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 5W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 1.26x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.92x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
50%
2.01
21%
4.86
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.83
1.66
FC St. Pauli xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
3%
29.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.66 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 10W 9D 21L from 40 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 7W 12D 21L across 40 games — 0.82 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 0.82 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 2W 6D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.92 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC St. Pauli in 60%.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 7W 12D 21L in their last 40 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or FC St. Pauli away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.30 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 60%, FC St. Pauli 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 45% (FC St. Pauli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 30% of games; FC St. Pauli in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 55% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 45% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.