1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 Dynamo Dresden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as 1. FC Heidenheim take on Dynamo Dresden.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 6 as 1. FC Heidenheim welcome Dynamo Dresden to Voith-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim at Voith-Arena this season: 0W 3D 0L from 3 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Voith-Arena.
Dynamo Dresden — All Games: 3W 1D 1L from 5 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Dynamo Dresden have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Dynamo Dresden's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of 1. FC Heidenheim's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Dynamo Dresden trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 40% versus Dynamo Dresden 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (1. FC Heidenheim 20% | Dynamo Dresden 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 0.85 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.680 / defence 0.824 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.969 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.304. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 1. FC Heidenheim games / 5 Dynamo Dresden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 25% | Draw 40% | Dynamo Dresden 35%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 4.00 | Draw 2.50 | Dynamo Dresden 2.86. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 33% | Dynamo Dresden 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 25% | Draw 40% | Dynamo Dresden 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 0.85 / Dynamo Dresden 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.680 / def 0.824 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.969 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Dynamo Dresden xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden?
1. FC Heidenheim 2 - 1 Dynamo Dresden.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 25% chance of winning, Dynamo Dresden a 35% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 0.68x the league average against Dynamo Dresden's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Dresden's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
3.99
40%
2.52
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
1.89
1.04
Dynamo Dresden xG
3.99
25%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 15.7 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.04 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 3D 1L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dynamo Dresden sit at 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dynamo Dresden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Dresden are on 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Dynamo Dresden's attacking output running into 1. FC Heidenheim's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Dynamo Dresden in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
Dynamo Dresden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Dynamo Dresden have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Dynamo Dresden been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dynamo Dresden in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
0
Dynamo Dresden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, Dynamo Dresden have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2022, when Dynamo Dresden 1-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 40%, Dynamo Dresden 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 60% (Dynamo Dresden).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Dynamo Dresden in 40%; 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Dynamo Dresden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Dynamo Dresden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 40% of Dynamo Dresden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Dynamo Dresden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 60% of Dynamo Dresden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Dynamo Dresden tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Dynamo Dresden in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Heidenheim defy the odds to beat Dynamo Dresden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Dynamo Dresden 2-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 0.85 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.04 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.68 / defence 0.82 against Dynamo Dresden attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 25% | Draw 40% | Dynamo Dresden 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Heidenheim win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 20%, Dynamo Dresden 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Dresden arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm. Dynamo Dresden managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.