Erzgebirge AUE 0-3 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karlsruher SC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Erzgebirge AUE welcome Karlsruher SC to Erzgebirgsstadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzgebirge AUE at Erzgebirgsstadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Erzgebirge AUE are significantly better at Erzgebirgsstadion than their overall form suggests.
Karlsruher SC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Karlsruher SC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Erzgebirge AUE, 1 for Karlsruher SC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Karlsruher SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Erzgebirge AUE trading profile (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Karlsruher SC trading profile (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Erzgebirge AUE 56% and Karlsruher SC 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 56% | Karlsruher SC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.20 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.781 / defence 1.378 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.821 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.494. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Karlsruher SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Erzgebirge AUE's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Erzgebirge AUE games / 26 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 24% | Draw 31% | Karlsruher SC 46%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Karlsruher SC 2.17. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karlsruher SC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Erzgebirge AUE 50% | Karlsruher SC 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 24% | Draw 31% | Karlsruher SC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 1.20 / Karlsruher SC 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.781 / def 1.378 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.821 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Karlsruher SC xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC?
Erzgebirge AUE 0 - 3 Karlsruher SC.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 24% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Karlsruher SC?
Record (1 meetings): Erzgebirge AUE 0W | Draws 0 | Karlsruher SC 1W.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Karlsruher SC in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Erzgebirge AUE's attack at 0.78x the league average against Karlsruher SC's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karlsruher SC's attack versus Erzgebirge AUE's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
24%
4.22
31%
3.25
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
2.89
1.69
Karlsruher SC xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
4%
22.92
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 1.69 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Erzgebirge AUE's recent record stands at 4W 7D 14L from 25 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karlsruher SC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 8L across 25 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Karlsruher SC by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Erzgebirge AUE heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Erzgebirge AUE have managed 3W 1D 7L from 11 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karlsruher SC's away record stands at 2W 4D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.60 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC in 76%.
Last 25 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
Karlsruher SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 4W 7D 14L in their last 25 games (0.76 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzgebirge AUE at home or Karlsruher SC away?
Erzgebirge AUE's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzgebirge AUE at home: 0.91 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Erzgebirge AUE
0
Draws
2
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Karlsruher SC?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, Karlsruher SC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2022, when Erzgebirge AUE 0-3 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between Erzgebirge AUE and Karlsruher SC?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzgebirge AUE 46%, Karlsruher SC 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Erzgebirge AUE) and 73% (Karlsruher SC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play Karlsruher SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Erzgebirge AUE's games and 82% of Karlsruher SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Erzgebirge AUE's matches and 73% of Karlsruher SC's.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Karlsruher SC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Erzgebirge AUE.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat Erzgebirge AUE 0-3 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 1.20 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.69 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Erzgebirge AUE fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Karlsruher SC outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.78 / defence 1.38 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 24% | Draw 31% | Karlsruher SC 46%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 56%, Karlsruher SC 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.