Dynamo Dresden 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dynamo Dresden at 37%, yet in-form Hamburger SV provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hamburger SV make the trip to Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion to face Dynamo Dresden in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 14 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Dynamo Dresden (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dynamo Dresden have gone 5W 0D 3L this season (8 games, 1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Dynamo Dresden are significantly better at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Hamburger SV have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hamburger SV are 0.80 PPG clear of Dynamo Dresden in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dynamo Dresden lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dynamo Dresden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Dresden 33% versus Hamburger SV 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Dresden 61% | Hamburger SV 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Dresden 1.17 xG and Hamburger SV 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.926 / defence 0.928 | Hamburger SV attack 0.800 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.318. Data: 18 Dynamo Dresden games / 18 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 37% | Draw 35% | Hamburger SV 28%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Dresden 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Hamburger SV 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Dresden are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hamburger SV (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Dresden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Dresden 12% | Hamburger SV 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 37% | Draw 35% | Hamburger SV 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Dynamo Dresden 1.17 / Hamburger SV 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.926 / def 0.928 | Hamburger SV attack 0.800 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Dresden (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Dynamo Dresden xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Hamburger SV xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What was the final score in Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV?
Dynamo Dresden 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What competition is Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV part of?
Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Dresden a 37% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Dresden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dynamo Dresden and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and Hamburger SV?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo Dresden 0W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 0W.
What form are Dynamo Dresden and Hamburger SV in?
Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dynamo Dresden's attack at 0.93x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (0.80x) against Dynamo Dresden's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Dresden Win
37%
2.67
35%
2.87
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Dynamo Dresden xG
Total xG
2.15
0.98
Hamburger SV xG
2.67
37%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dynamo Dresden and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 0.98 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Dynamo Dresden have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 7W 1D 10L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dynamo Dresden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV's form line: 7W 9D 2L from 18 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dynamo Dresden.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dynamo Dresden have posted 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (5W 0D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Dynamo Dresden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dynamo Dresden are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.72 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 72%.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Dresden and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Dynamo Dresden have gone 7W 1D 10L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 7W 9D 2L in their last 18 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Dresden at home or Hamburger SV away?
Dynamo Dresden's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Dresden at home: 1.88 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dynamo Dresden
2
Draws
0
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, Dynamo Dresden have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Dresden and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2022, when Dynamo Dresden 1-1 Hamburger SV.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Dresden 12%, Hamburger SV 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dynamo Dresden) and 38% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Dresden keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Dynamo Dresden have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Dresden home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Dresden play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Dynamo Dresden's recent matches and 62% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Dresden vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dynamo Dresden's recent games and 38% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Dresden and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Dynamo Dresden have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Dresden and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as Dynamo Dresden and Hamburger SV drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 1.17 xG and Hamburger SV 0.98 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Hamburger SV attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 37% | Draw 35% | Hamburger SV 28%, with Dynamo Dresden to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 61%, Hamburger SV 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.