Dynamo Dresden 0-1 Erzgebirge AUE – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo Dresden at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Erzgebirge AUE travel to Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion to take on Dynamo Dresden. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Dynamo Dresden have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dynamo Dresden have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Dynamo Dresden are significantly better at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Erzgebirge AUE — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Erzgebirge AUE away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Dynamo Dresden) versus 0.80 (Erzgebirge AUE). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Dynamo Dresden, 0 for Erzgebirge AUE and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Dynamo Dresden winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Dynamo Dresden trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Erzgebirge AUE trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Dresden 52% versus Erzgebirge AUE 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Dresden 52% | Erzgebirge AUE 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Dresden 1.54 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.726 / defence 1.019 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.744 / defence 1.845. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.444. Dynamo Dresden's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Erzgebirge AUE bring a strong defensive rating of 1.845 — this is suppressing Dynamo Dresden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Dynamo Dresden games / 33 Erzgebirge AUE games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 44% | Draw 32% | Erzgebirge AUE 23%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Dresden 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Erzgebirge AUE 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Dresden are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Dresden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Dresden 70% | Erzgebirge AUE 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 44% | Draw 32% | Erzgebirge AUE 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Dynamo Dresden 1.54 / Erzgebirge AUE 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.726 / def 1.019 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.744 / def 1.845 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Dresden (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Dynamo Dresden xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Erzgebirge AUE xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE kick off?
Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What was the final score in Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Dynamo Dresden 0 - 1 Erzgebirge AUE.
Where is Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE being played?
The match is being played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What competition is Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE part of?
Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Dresden a 44% chance of winning, Erzgebirge AUE a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Dresden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dynamo Dresden and Erzgebirge AUE will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and Erzgebirge AUE?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo Dresden 1W | Draws 0 | Erzgebirge AUE 0W.
What form are Dynamo Dresden and Erzgebirge AUE in?
Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dynamo Dresden's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Erzgebirge AUE's defensive record (1.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Erzgebirge AUE's attack versus Dynamo Dresden's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Dresden Win
44%
2.26
32%
3.10
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Dynamo Dresden xG
Total xG
2.64
1.09
Erzgebirge AUE xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
5%
19.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Dynamo Dresden and Erzgebirge AUE expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.09 for Erzgebirge AUE, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Dynamo Dresden have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 7W 11D 15L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Erzgebirge AUE's form line: 5W 8D 20L from 33 games, 0.70 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dynamo Dresden on 0.97 PPG, Erzgebirge AUE on 0.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dynamo Dresden have posted 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
On the road, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 2W 5D 9L from 16 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Dresden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo Dresden are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Erzgebirge AUE are on 0.94 scored and 2.18 conceded.
Last 33 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Dresden
Current Season
Erzgebirge AUE
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Dresden and Erzgebirge AUE in coming into this match?
Dynamo Dresden have gone 7W 11D 15L in their last 33 games (0.97 PPG), while Erzgebirge AUE have gone 5W 8D 20L in their last 33 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Dresden at home or Erzgebirge AUE away?
Dynamo Dresden's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Dresden at home: 1.25 PPG; Erzgebirge AUE away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dynamo Dresden
0
Draws
1
Erzgebirge AUE
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and Erzgebirge AUE?
From 2 meetings on record, Dynamo Dresden have won 1, Erzgebirge AUE have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Dresden and Erzgebirge AUE last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Dynamo Dresden 0-1 Erzgebirge AUE.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo Dresden see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Dresden 44%, Erzgebirge AUE 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Dynamo Dresden) and 69% (Erzgebirge AUE).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Dresden keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dynamo Dresden have failed to score in 31% of games; Erzgebirge AUE in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Dresden home games / Erzgebirge AUE away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Dresden play Erzgebirge AUE?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Dynamo Dresden's recent matches and 56% of Erzgebirge AUE's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Dresden vs Erzgebirge AUE usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Dynamo Dresden's recent games and 69% of Erzgebirge AUE's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Dresden and Erzgebirge AUE tend to score early?
Dynamo Dresden have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Erzgebirge AUE in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Erzgebirge AUE defy the odds to beat Dynamo Dresden 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Erzgebirge AUE beat Dynamo Dresden 0-1 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 1.54 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.09 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo Dresden fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 0.73 / defence 1.02 against Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.74 / defence 1.84, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 44% | Draw 32% | Erzgebirge AUE 23%, with Dynamo Dresden to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Erzgebirge AUE win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 52%, Erzgebirge AUE 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dynamo Dresden 0.97 PPG, Erzgebirge AUE 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Erzgebirge AUE win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.