Dynamo Dresden 0-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo Dresden at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Nürnberg meet at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dynamo Dresden have collected 1.44 PPG across 9 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Dresden at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 home games — 2.25 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.44 — Dynamo Dresden are significantly better at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 6D 0L from 9 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 0.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.44 vs 1.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Dynamo Dresden half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Dresden 33% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Dresden 67% | 1. FC Nürnberg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Dresden 1.54 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Dresden attack 1.154 / defence 0.929 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.873 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.474. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Dynamo Dresden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Dynamo Dresden games / 9 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 42% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 26%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Dresden 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Dresden as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Dresden if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Dynamo Dresden 0% | 1. FC Nürnberg 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 42% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Dynamo Dresden 1.54 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Dresden attack 1.154 / def 0.929 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.873 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Dresden (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Dynamo Dresden xG
Expected Goals
1.19
1. FC Nürnberg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What was the final score in Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Dynamo Dresden 0 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What competition is Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Dresden a 42% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Dresden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Nürnberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-6D-0L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dynamo Dresden's attack rating (1.15) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.87x) against Dynamo Dresden's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Dresden Win
42%
2.40
32%
3.09
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Dynamo Dresden xG
Total xG
2.73
1.19
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
6%
17.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.19 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dynamo Dresden come into this having played 9 games, going 4W 1D 4L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Dynamo Dresden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (3W 6D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Dynamo Dresden against 1.67 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Dynamo Dresden's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Dynamo Dresden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 4D 0L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Nürnberg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Dresden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dynamo Dresden are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.22 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Dynamo Dresden have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 6D 0L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Dresden at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
Dynamo Dresden's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Dresden at home: 2.25 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Dynamo Dresden or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Dresden have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 3-0 on 9 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo Dresden have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Dynamo Dresden
1
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 5 meetings on record, Dynamo Dresden have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Dynamo Dresden.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Dresden 0%, 1. FC Nürnberg 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dynamo Dresden and 75% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo Dresden keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Dresden home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Dresden play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Dynamo Dresden's recent matches and 75% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dynamo Dresden's matches and 75% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Dynamo Dresden have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Nürnberg defy the odds to beat Dynamo Dresden 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Dynamo Dresden 0-1 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 1.54 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo Dresden fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 42% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 26%, with Dynamo Dresden to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual 1. FC Nürnberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 67%, 1. FC Nürnberg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dynamo Dresden 1.44 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.