Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SchücoArena plays host to Arminia Bielefeld versus FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Arminia Bielefeld's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SchücoArena, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.00 for FC St. Pauli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC St. Pauli in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Arminia Bielefeld half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 52% versus FC St. Pauli 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 44% | FC St. Pauli 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.91 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.034 / defence 1.301 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.845 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.263. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Arminia Bielefeld's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Arminia Bielefeld games / 46 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 48% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 27%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | FC St. Pauli 3.70. Arminia Bielefeld hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arminia Bielefeld at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 60% | FC St. Pauli 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 48% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.91 / FC St. Pauli 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.034 / def 1.301 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.845 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.39
FC St. Pauli xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
Arminia Bielefeld 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 48% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Arminia Bielefeld's attack rating (1.03) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.84x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
48%
2.07
25%
4.00
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.30
1.39
FC St. Pauli xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
4%
25.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.39 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 7W 15D 24L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 19W 14D 13L from 46 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arminia Bielefeld.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1.00 PPG from 22 outings (4W 10D 8L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 5W 6D 11L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.72 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli in 63%.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 7W 15D 24L in their last 46 games (0.78 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 19W 14D 13L in their last 46 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.00 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
0
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli?
From 2 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 59% for Arminia Bielefeld, 73% for FC St. Pauli — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 64% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 32% of games; FC St. Pauli in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 73% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 64% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat FC St. Pauli 2-0 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.91 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.03 / defence 1.30 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 48% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 27%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 44%, FC St. Pauli 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.