Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Arminia Bielefeld welcome 1. FC Magdeburg to SchücoArena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Arminia Bielefeld — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at SchücoArena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 3W 1D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Arminia Bielefeld at 1.00 PPG versus 1. FC Magdeburg's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Arminia Bielefeld register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 56% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 50% | 1. FC Magdeburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.98 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.085 / defence 1.251 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.025 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.318. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Arminia Bielefeld's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Arminia Bielefeld games / 16 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.03. Arminia Bielefeld hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arminia Bielefeld at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 60% | 1. FC Magdeburg 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.98 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.085 / def 1.251 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.025 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.69
1. FC Magdeburg xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Arminia Bielefeld 3 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 45% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Magdeburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Arminia Bielefeld's attack rating (1.08) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
45%
2.25
22%
4.46
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.67
1.69
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.25
45%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
5%
21.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.69 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 4W 2D 10L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg's form line: 5W 2D 9L from 16 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arminia Bielefeld on 0.88 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Arminia Bielefeld are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.19 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 4W 2D 10L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.29 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Arminia Bielefeld have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when 1. FC Magdeburg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Arminia Bielefeld
0
Draws
1
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 3, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 57%, 1. FC Magdeburg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Arminia Bielefeld and 71% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 29% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 57% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 71% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1. FC Magdeburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat 1. FC Magdeburg 3-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.98 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.69 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.08 / defence 1.25 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 50%, 1. FC Magdeburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 0.88 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arminia Bielefeld win broke the near-deadlock. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.