1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 37%, yet in-form SV Darmstadt 98 provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Max-Morlock-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SV Darmstadt 98 arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Nürnberg lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
1. FC Nürnberg half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 48% versus SV Darmstadt 98 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 54% | SV Darmstadt 98 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.03 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.826 / defence 0.758 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.972 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.265. 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 1. FC Nürnberg games / 59 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 37% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 32%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | SV Darmstadt 98 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Darmstadt 98 (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 37% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.03 / SV Darmstadt 98 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.826 / def 0.758 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.972 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
0.93
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 31 March 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 37% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 2W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.83x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.97x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.22
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
1.97
0.93
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0.93 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, 1. FC Nürnberg have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 22W 14D 23L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98's form line: 33W 13D 13L from 59 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SV Darmstadt 98 are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Nürnberg.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 1.59 PPG from 29 outings (14W 4D 11L).
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 5D 9L from 29 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.88 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 22W 14D 23L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 33W 13D 13L in their last 59 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.59 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.72 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SV Darmstadt 98 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
5
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-0 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 45%, SV Darmstadt 98 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 59% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 59% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 59% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Darmstadt 98 defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.03 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.93 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.83 / defence 0.76 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 37% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 32%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 54%, SV Darmstadt 98 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.