1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as 1. FC Nürnberg take on Karlsruher SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Max-Morlock-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Nürnberg versus Karlsruher SC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 27 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 1.50 PPG across 4 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 0L. Last five: D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karlsruher SC (all games): 2W 2D 0L across 4 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.25. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Karlsruher SC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Karlsruher SC are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Karlsruher SC in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Karlsruher SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Karlsruher SC 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Karlsruher SC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.02 xG and Karlsruher SC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.945 / defence 0.863 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.820 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.388. Data: 4 1. FC Nürnberg games / 4 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 32% | Draw 39% | Karlsruher SC 29%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 3.12 | Draw 2.56 | Karlsruher SC 3.45. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Karlsruher SC 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 32% | Draw 39% | Karlsruher SC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 44% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.02 / Karlsruher SC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.945 / def 0.863 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.820 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Karlsruher SC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 1 Karlsruher SC.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 32% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 29% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-D. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.25 | L5 W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Karlsruher SC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Karlsruher SC's attack (0.82x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
39%
2.57
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.01
0.98
Karlsruher SC xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0.98 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 1W 3D 0L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Karlsruher SC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 0L across 4 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Karlsruher SC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Nürnberg heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.50 scored and 0.25 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Karlsruher SC in 25%.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games; Karlsruher SC in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
Karlsruher SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Karlsruher SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Karlsruher SC in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 5-1 on 13 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Karlsruher SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
6
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, Karlsruher SC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 5-1 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Karlsruher SC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 25% (Karlsruher SC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 50% (Karlsruher SC).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Karlsruher SC in 75%; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 50% of games; Karlsruher SC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Karlsruher SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 25% of Karlsruher SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 50% of Karlsruher SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out Karlsruher SC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Karlsruher SC 2-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.02 xG and Karlsruher SC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.82 / defence 1.02, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 32% | Draw 39% | Karlsruher SC 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual 1. FC Nürnberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 25%, Karlsruher SC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Nürnberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Nürnberg scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Karlsruher SC shipped 2 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.