1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Holstein Kiel make the trip to Max-Morlock-Stadion to face 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 4W 2D 2L at Max-Morlock-Stadion — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
Holstein Kiel (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Holstein Kiel have posted 2W 4D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Holstein Kiel — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 47% versus Holstein Kiel 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 53% | Holstein Kiel 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.46 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.972 / defence 1.076 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.850 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.334. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 1. FC Nürnberg games / 15 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 39% | Draw 33% | Holstein Kiel 28%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Holstein Kiel 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 38% | Holstein Kiel 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 39% | Draw 33% | Holstein Kiel 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.46 / Holstein Kiel 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.972 / def 1.076 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.850 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Holstein Kiel xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 39% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (0.85x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
39%
2.56
33%
3.03
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.68
1.22
Holstein Kiel xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
6%
15.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.22 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 15 games, going 6W 6D 3L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.13 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 60%.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 6D 3L in their last 15 games (1.60 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Holstein Kiel away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.86 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.00 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Holstein Kiel won 0-4 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
4
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Holstein Kiel 2-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 43%, Holstein Kiel 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 71% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 86% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 71% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out Holstein Kiel 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.46 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.22 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.85 / defence 1.21, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 39% | Draw 33% | Holstein Kiel 28%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 53%, Holstein Kiel 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.