1. FC Nürnberg 0-0 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hannover 96 at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome Hannover 96 to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hannover 96 — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hannover 96 — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Nürnberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hannover 96 in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Nürnberg, 0 for Hannover 96 and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 3–0 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Hannover 96 trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 52% versus Hannover 96 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 59% | Hannover 96 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.35 xG and Hannover 96 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.839 / defence 1.190 | Hannover 96 attack 1.202 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.300. Hannover 96 have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 1. FC Nürnberg games / 46 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 27% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 49%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Hannover 96 2.04. Hannover 96 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hannover 96 are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 60% | Hannover 96 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 27% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.35 / Hannover 96 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.839 / def 1.190 | Hannover 96 attack 1.202 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Hannover 96 xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 0 Hannover 96.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 27% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 1 | Hannover 96 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Hannover 96 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.84x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
27%
3.66
24%
4.18
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.21
1.86
Hannover 96 xG
3.66
27%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
16%
6.43
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
4%
23.52
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.86 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 18W 10D 18L from 46 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hannover 96, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 18L across 46 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.39 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 10W 3D 9L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hannover 96's away record stands at 8W 2D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.22 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 18W 10D 18L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 17W 11D 18L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Hannover 96 away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.50 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.18 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1. FC Nürnberg
4
Draws
4
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, Hannover 96 have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hannover 96 3-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, Hannover 96 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 77% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Hannover 96?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 54% of Hannover 96's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 77% of Hannover 96's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Nürnberg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg and Hannover 96 finished level at 0-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.35 xG and Hannover 96 1.86 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hannover 96 landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.19 against Hannover 96 attack 1.20 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 27% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 49%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 59%, Hannover 96 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hannover 96's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.39 PPG, Hannover 96 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.