1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees FC St. Pauli travel to Max-Morlock-Stadion to take on 1. FC Nürnberg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Nürnberg at 1.20 PPG versus FC St. Pauli's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, FC St. Pauli 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 2–3 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 53% versus FC St. Pauli 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 57% | FC St. Pauli 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.60 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.895 / defence 1.050 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.930 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.296. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 1. FC Nürnberg games / 51 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 45% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | FC St. Pauli 3.33. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 45% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.60 / FC St. Pauli 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.895 / def 1.050 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.930 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
FC St. Pauli xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 45% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 0W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 2W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.01
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.87
1.27
FC St. Pauli xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
6%
16.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.27 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 19W 13D 19L from 51 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 15L across 51 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.37 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 11W 4D 10L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 5W 7D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.65 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli in 61%.
Last 51 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 19W 17D 15L in their last 51 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.48 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.88 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
5
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, FC St. Pauli have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 52%, FC St. Pauli 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 60% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC St. Pauli in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 68% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 60% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.60 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.27 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 45% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 30%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC St. Pauli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 57%, FC St. Pauli 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.