1. FC Nürnberg 1-1 Dynamo Dresden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Max-Morlock-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Nürnberg versus Dynamo Dresden in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 20 March 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dynamo Dresden have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dynamo Dresden have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in 1. FC Nürnberg's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 1W, Dynamo Dresden 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Dynamo Dresden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 50% versus Dynamo Dresden 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 62% | Dynamo Dresden 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG and Dynamo Dresden 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.992 / defence 1.187 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.531 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.466. Dynamo Dresden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 1. FC Nürnberg games / 26 Dynamo Dresden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 44% | Draw 34% | Dynamo Dresden 22%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Dynamo Dresden 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | Dynamo Dresden 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 44% | Draw 34% | Dynamo Dresden 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 / Dynamo Dresden 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.992 / def 1.187 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.531 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Dynamo Dresden xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 1 Dynamo Dresden.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 44% chance of winning, Dynamo Dresden a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Dresden 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (0.99) and Dynamo Dresden's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dynamo Dresden's attack (0.53x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
44%
2.28
34%
2.95
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.29
0.92
Dynamo Dresden xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
6%
17.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0.92 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 13W 6D 7L from 26 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Dresden, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 13L across 26 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dynamo Dresden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Nürnberg by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dynamo Dresden heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 7W 2D 4L from 13 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo Dresden's away record stands at 2W 3D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Dresden are on 0.96 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 13W 6D 7L in their last 26 games (1.73 PPG), while Dynamo Dresden have gone 7W 6D 13L in their last 26 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Dynamo Dresden away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.77 PPG; Dynamo Dresden away: 0.69 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Dynamo Dresden been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Dynamo Dresden in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 3-0 on 9 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo Dresden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
1
Dynamo Dresden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden?
From 5 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, Dynamo Dresden have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Dynamo Dresden.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 46%, Dynamo Dresden 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 62% for Dynamo Dresden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Dynamo Dresden in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Dynamo Dresden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Dynamo Dresden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 46% of Dynamo Dresden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 62% of Dynamo Dresden's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dynamo Dresden in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 27, as 1. FC Nürnberg and Dynamo Dresden drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG and Dynamo Dresden 0.92 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.99 / defence 1.19 against Dynamo Dresden attack 0.53 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 44% | Draw 34% | Dynamo Dresden 22%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 62%, Dynamo Dresden 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.