1. FC Magdeburg 3-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MDCC-Arena plays host to 1. FC Magdeburg versus Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 2 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's home record at MDCC-Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Hansa Rostock (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 0.80 for Hansa Rostock — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1 for Hansa Rostock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 60% versus Hansa Rostock 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 64% | Hansa Rostock 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 0.87 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.731 / defence 0.945 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.812 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.265. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 1. FC Magdeburg games / 59 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 32% | Hansa Rostock 36%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Hansa Rostock 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% | Hansa Rostock 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 32% | Hansa Rostock 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 0.87 / Hansa Rostock 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.731 / def 0.945 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.812 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Hansa Rostock xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Magdeburg 3 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 31% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 0W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.81x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
31%
3.20
32%
3.09
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
1.84
0.97
Hansa Rostock xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0.97 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 8W 4D 13L from 25 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 14L across 25 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.00 for Hansa Rostock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 3W 3D 6L from 12 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 4W 3D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 0.84 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 8W 4D 13L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 7W 4D 14L in their last 25 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hansa Rostock's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.00 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
0
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Hansa Rostock 0-2 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 50%, Hansa Rostock 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 33% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 33%; 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 33% of games; Hansa Rostock in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 33% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent games and 33% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Hansa Rostock 3-0 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 0.87 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.97 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hansa Rostock landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.73 / defence 0.94 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.81 / defence 0.82, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 32% | Hansa Rostock 36%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 64%, Hansa Rostock 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.12 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.