Saint Etienne vs Dijon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 23 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 2L from 7 games (1.29 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dijon have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.51 in Saint Etienne's favour (1.80 vs 1.29) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for Dijon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2026, ended 3–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%.
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Saint Etienne 71% and Dijon 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Saint Etienne 100% | Dijon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 2.18 xG and Dijon 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.626 / defence 0.840 | Dijon attack 0.985 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.244. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.626 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Saint Etienne games / 7 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 63% | Draw 21% | Dijon 16%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Dijon 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 30% | Dijon 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 63% | Draw 21% | Dijon 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Saint Etienne 2.18 / Dijon 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.626 / def 0.840 | Dijon attack 0.985 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Dijon xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Dijon kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Dijon is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 April 2027 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Dijon part of?
Saint Etienne vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 63% chance of winning, Dijon a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Saint Etienne and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Dijon?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 2W | Draws 0 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Dijon in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Dijon (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (1.63x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.98x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.76
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.21
1.03
Dijon xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
11%
8.84
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
2%
54.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.03 for Dijon, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Dijon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne come into this having played 7 games, going 5W 1D 1L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Saint Etienne's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.29 PPG overall — Saint Etienne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 1.67 points per game from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 2.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.43 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Dijon in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Dijon in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 games (2.29 PPG), while Dijon have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Dijon away?
Saint Etienne's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 3.00 PPG; Dijon away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Saint Etienne go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Dijon?
From 3 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Dijon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Dijon 2-3 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Dijon?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Saint Etienne, 100% for Dijon — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Saint Etienne and 33% for Dijon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Saint Etienne's games and 100% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Saint Etienne's matches and 33% of Dijon's.
Do Saint Etienne and Dijon tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dijon in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.