Rodez vs Dijon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul-Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rodez have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Paul-Lignon — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul-Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 2L from 7 games (1.29 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dijon's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 0L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.29 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rodez register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dijon in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Rodez 1W, Dijon 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Dijon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 71%.
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 71% and Dijon 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 71% | Dijon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.62 xG and Dijon 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.209 / defence 1.267 | Dijon attack 0.987 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.244. Data: 41 Rodez games / 7 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 39% | Draw 25% | Dijon 36%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Dijon 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Dijon 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 39% | Draw 25% | Dijon 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Rodez 1.62 / Dijon 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.209 / def 1.267 | Dijon attack 0.987 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Rodez (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Dijon xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Dijon kick off?
Rodez vs Dijon is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Where is Rodez vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Dijon part of?
Rodez vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 39% chance of winning, Dijon a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Rodez and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dijon?
Record (4 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 1 | Dijon 2W.
What form are Rodez and Dijon in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Dijon (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.21) and Dijon's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.99x) against Rodez's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
39%
2.58
25%
3.98
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.17
1.55
Dijon xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
7%
13.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Rodez and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Rodez and 1.55 for Dijon, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez's recent record stands at 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 2L across 7 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Rodez against 1.29 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dijon's away record stands at 1W 3D 0L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.43 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Dijon in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Dijon in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Dijon have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Dijon away?
Dijon's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.00 PPG; Dijon away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rodez
1
Draws
2
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Dijon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Dijon 1-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Dijon?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dijon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Rodez, 100% for Dijon — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Rodez) and 25% (Dijon).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Rodez's games and 100% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Rodez's recent games and 25% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Dijon tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dijon in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.