RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 30 as RED Star FC 93 welcome Rodez to Stade Bauer. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Bauer this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Bauer.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RED Star FC 93 1.80 PPG, Rodez 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for RED Star FC 93, 1 for Rodez and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Rodez in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RED Star FC 93 51% and Rodez 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 51% | Rodez 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.54 xG and Rodez 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.910 / defence 1.079 | Rodez attack 1.164 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.244. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing RED Star FC 93's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 RED Star FC 93 games / 41 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 25% | Rodez 38%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Rodez 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 50% | Rodez 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 25% | Rodez 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.54 / Rodez 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.910 / def 1.079 | Rodez attack 1.164 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Rodez (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Rodez xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 April 2027 at Stade Bauer.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 37% chance of winning, Rodez a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Rodez?
Record (5 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 3 | Rodez 1W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Rodez in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Rodez (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RED Star FC 93's attack at 0.91x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
37%
2.71
25%
3.93
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
3.11
1.56
Rodez xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
8%
12.95
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.56 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 19W 12D 10L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez's form line: 18W 14D 9L from 41 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.68 PPG, Rodez on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 9W 7D 5L from 21 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.51 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 73%.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Rodez in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 19W 12D 10L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Rodez have gone 18W 14D 9L in their last 41 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.52 PPG; Rodez away: 1.62 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Rodez in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RED Star FC 93 and Rodez runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
3
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Rodez?
From 5 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Rodez have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when RED Star FC 93 2-3 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 57%, Rodez 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (RED Star FC 93) and 57% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of RED Star FC 93's games and 71% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 57% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Rodez tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rodez in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.