RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as RED Star FC 93 take on Boulogne.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 host Boulogne at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Bauer, RED Star FC 93 have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Bauer.
Boulogne — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Boulogne have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
RED Star FC 93 carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for RED Star FC 93, 0 for Boulogne and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Boulogne in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 51% versus Boulogne 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 51% | Boulogne 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.86 xG and Boulogne 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.910 / defence 1.080 | Boulogne attack 0.653 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.244. Boulogne's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 RED Star FC 93 games / 41 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 32% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 33%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Boulogne 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — RED Star FC 93's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 50% | Boulogne 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 32% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG RED Star FC 93 0.86 / Boulogne 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.910 / def 1.080 | Boulogne attack 0.653 / def 0.739 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Boulogne xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at Stade Bauer.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 32% chance of winning, Boulogne a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne?
Record (3 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 2 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Boulogne (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Boulogne's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
36%
2.81
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
1.74
0.88
Boulogne xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 15.5 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 0.88 for Boulogne, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 19W 12D 10L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Boulogne's form line: 9W 14D 18L from 41 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, RED Star FC 93 are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
Venue Form
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (8W 8D 4L).
On the road, Boulogne have gone 5W 8D 7L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.90 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
Boulogne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 19W 12D 10L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 9W 14D 18L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Boulogne away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.60 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.15 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Boulogne in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
2
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne?
From 3 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Boulogne have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Boulogne 1-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 55%, Boulogne 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RED Star FC 93) and 25% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Boulogne in 35%; Boulogne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 35% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 25% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.