PAU vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Guingamp travel to Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Nouste Camp this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (PAU) versus 0.80 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for PAU, 5 for Guingamp and 1 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 51% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 58% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.21 xG and Guingamp 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.849 / defence 0.908 | Guingamp attack 0.922 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.245. Data: 41 PAU games / 41 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 31%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Guingamp 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: PAU 50% | Guingamp 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG PAU 1.21 / Guingamp 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.849 / def 0.908 | Guingamp attack 0.922 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: PAU (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Guingamp xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Guingamp kick off?
PAU vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 30 April 2027 at Nouste Camp.
Where is PAU vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Guingamp part of?
PAU vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 39% chance of winning, Guingamp a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PAU and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
Record (10 meetings): PAU 4W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 5W.
What form are PAU and Guingamp in?
PAU (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PAU's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.26
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
PAU xG
Total xG
2.25
1.04
Guingamp xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are PAU and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for PAU and 1.04 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, PAU have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 14W 11D 16L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 12W 12D 17L from 41 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.29 PPG, Guingamp on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 10L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.27 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Guingamp in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Guingamp away?
PAU's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.05 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAU
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 4, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when PAU 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 55%, Guingamp 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for PAU and 65% for Guingamp. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAU have failed to score in 30% of games; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of PAU's games and 65% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAU vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of PAU's matches and 65% of Guingamp's.
Do PAU and Guingamp tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.