Guingamp vs Sochaux – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 42%, yet in-form Sochaux provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Guingamp welcome Sochaux to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Sochaux have recorded 2W 4D 1L from 7 outings — 1.43 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 0.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.71 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sochaux have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sochaux — 0.63 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.43 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Sochaux have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Guingamp's 1 victories.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Sochaux winning.
It is worth noting that Sochaux have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 71% versus Sochaux 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 71% | Sochaux 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.27 xG and Sochaux 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.112 / defence 1.185 | Sochaux attack 0.680 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.245. Data: 41 Guingamp games / 7 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 42% | Draw 30% | Sochaux 28%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Sochaux 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sochaux (1.43 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 50% | Sochaux 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 42% | Draw 30% | Sochaux 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Guingamp 1.27 / Sochaux 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.112 / def 1.185 | Sochaux attack 0.680 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sochaux xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Sochaux kick off?
Guingamp vs Sochaux is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Sochaux part of?
Guingamp vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 42% chance of winning, Sochaux a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Guingamp and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Sochaux?
Record (5 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Sochaux 4W.
What form are Guingamp and Sochaux in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Sochaux (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 0.71 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
42%
2.41
30%
3.31
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.27
1.00
Sochaux xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
8%
12.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.00 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 2D 3L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sochaux sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.14 PPG, Sochaux on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Guingamp are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sochaux have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 4D 0L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sochaux's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 0.57 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Sochaux in 29%.
Defensively: Sochaux in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Sochaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Sochaux away?
Guingamp's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.75 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Sochaux in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Sochaux runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Sochaux specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Guingamp
0
Draws
4
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Sochaux?
From 5 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Sochaux have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Sochaux 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sochaux tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 75%, Sochaux 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Guingamp) and 0% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 50%; Sochaux in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Sochaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Guingamp's games and 50% of Sochaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Guingamp's recent games and 0% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Sochaux tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.