Dijon vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Guingamp travel to to take on Dijon. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 outings — a 1.29 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dijon's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dijon 1.29 PPG, Guingamp 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dijon register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dijon, 2 for Guingamp and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dijon trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 86% and Guingamp 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 43% | Guingamp 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.45 xG and Guingamp 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.019 / defence 1.319 | Guingamp attack 0.922 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.244. Data: 7 Dijon games / 41 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 35% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 38%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Guingamp 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Guingamp lead the H2H ledger, but Dijon carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 67% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 16 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 35% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Dijon 1.45 / Guingamp 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.019 / def 1.319 | Guingamp attack 0.922 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Guingamp xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Guingamp kick off?
Dijon vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 16 April 2027.
What competition is Dijon vs Guingamp part of?
Dijon vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 35% chance of winning, Guingamp a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Dijon and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Dijon and Guingamp in?
Dijon (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.02) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
35%
2.82
26%
3.82
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.96
1.51
Guingamp xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
8%
12.82
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Dijon and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dijon and 1.51 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 2W 3D 2L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.29 PPG, Guingamp on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Guingamp's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dijon are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.43 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; Guingamp in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Guingamp away?
Dijon's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.00 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dijon and Guingamp runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dijon's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dijon
2
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Guingamp have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dijon at 67%, Guingamp at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dijon and 67% for Guingamp. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dijon have failed to score in 33% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dijon's games and 67% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dijon's matches and 67% of Guingamp's.
Do Dijon and Guingamp tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.