Paris Saint Germain vs Nice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Nice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Nice travel to Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint Germain. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Paris Saint Germain have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Parc des Princes this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nice — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Paris Saint Germain are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Nice 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 4–0 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Nice trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 46% versus Nice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 64% | Nice 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.76 xG and Nice 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.076 / defence 1.062 | Nice attack 0.736 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.296. Data: 39 Paris Saint Germain games / 39 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 54% | Draw 26% | Nice 21%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Nice 4.76. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Paris Saint Germain 60% | Nice 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 54% | Draw 26% | Nice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.76 / Nice 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.076 / def 1.062 | Nice attack 0.736 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Nice xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Nice kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nice is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 May 2027 at Parc des Princes.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nice is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 54% chance of winning, Nice a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
Record (10 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 5W | Draws 2 | Nice 3W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nice in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Nice (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris Saint Germain's attack rating (1.08) and Nice's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.91
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.77
1.01
Nice xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
4%
28.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.01 for Nice, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris Saint Germain come into this having played 39 games, going 26W 6D 7L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nice sit at 0.97 PPG from 39 outings (8W 14D 17L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.18 PPG clear of Nice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Paris Saint Germain's home form reads 13W 3D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (3W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.05 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nice in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 26W 6D 7L in their last 39 games (2.15 PPG), while Nice have gone 8W 14D 17L in their last 39 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Nice away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.21 PPG; Nice away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Nice in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
2
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Nice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Nice 0-4 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 42%, Nice 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Paris Saint Germain and 53% for Nice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Nice in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 53% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 53% of Nice's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Nice tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Nice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.