Lille vs Toulouse – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lille face Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Toulouse at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lille — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Toulouse have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lille are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Lille have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while Toulouse have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Lille winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lille and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Lille in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 37% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 37% | Toulouse 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.77 xG and Toulouse 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.039 / defence 0.919 | Toulouse attack 1.144 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.296. Data: 39 Lille games / 38 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 46% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 29%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Toulouse 3.45. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lille 50% | Toulouse 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 46% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Lille 1.77 / Toulouse 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.039 / def 0.919 | Toulouse attack 1.144 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Lille (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Toulouse xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Toulouse kick off?
Lille vs Toulouse is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Where is Lille vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Toulouse part of?
Lille vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 46% chance of winning, Toulouse a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lille and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Toulouse?
Record (9 meetings): Lille 7W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Lille and Toulouse in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (1.04) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
46%
2.17
25%
3.97
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Lille xG
Total xG
3.13
1.36
Toulouse xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
5%
20.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Lille and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lille and 1.36 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 7D 10L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.29 PPG from 38 outings (13W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lille's home form reads 8W 6D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.42 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 21W 7D 10L in their last 38 games (1.84 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Toulouse away?
Lille's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.67 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Lille or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Toulouse in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Toulouse runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lille go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Lille
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Toulouse?
From 9 meetings on record, Lille have won 7, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Toulouse 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Toulouse?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 50%, Toulouse 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lille) and 61% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lille's games and 61% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lille's recent games and 61% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Toulouse tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.