Le Havre vs Estac Troyes – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's home record at Stade Océane: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Estac Troyes are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Estac Troyes trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 51% versus Estac Troyes 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 33% | Estac Troyes 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.24 xG and Estac Troyes 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.697 / defence 0.903 | Estac Troyes attack 0.683 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.296. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Le Havre games / 5 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 23%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Estac Troyes 4.35. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Estac Troyes (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | Estac Troyes 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Le Havre 1.24 / Estac Troyes 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.697 / def 0.903 | Estac Troyes attack 0.683 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Estac Troyes xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Le Havre vs Estac Troyes is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Stade Océane.
Where is Le Havre vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Estac Troyes part of?
Le Havre vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 45% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Le Havre and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Estac Troyes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Estac Troyes in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.13
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.04
0.80
Estac Troyes xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
7%
15.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.80 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 7W 16D 16L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estac Troyes's form line: 21W 8D 10L from 39 games, 1.82 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Estac Troyes are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Venue Form
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (5W 9D 6L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 7W 6D 7L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estac Troyes's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.64 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 16L in their last 39 games (0.95 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 21W 8D 10L in their last 39 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Estac Troyes away?
Estac Troyes's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.20 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 55%, Estac Troyes 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Le Havre) and 45% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 40% of games; Estac Troyes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Le Havre's recent matches and 45% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Le Havre's recent games and 45% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.