Auxerre vs Lorient – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Auxerre at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Lorient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Lorient at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Lorient — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Lorient have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lorient's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Auxerre 1.60 PPG, Lorient 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Auxerre, 1 for Lorient and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Lorient in-play tendencies (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 46% versus Lorient 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 49% | Lorient 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.11 xG and Lorient 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.936 / defence 0.982 | Lorient attack 0.854 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.296. Lorient's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Auxerre games / 39 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 35% | Draw 32% | Lorient 34%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Lorient 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Lorient 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 35% | Draw 32% | Lorient 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Auxerre 1.11 / Lorient 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.936 / def 0.982 | Lorient attack 0.854 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Lorient xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Lorient kick off?
Auxerre vs Lorient is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Where is Auxerre vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lorient part of?
Auxerre vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 35% chance of winning, Lorient a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Auxerre and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lorient?
Record (4 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 1 | Lorient 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Lorient in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Lorient (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.94x the league average against Lorient's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lorient's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
35%
2.88
32%
3.16
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.20
1.09
Lorient xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.09 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 10W 10D 19L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lorient's form line: 12W 14D 13L from 39 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lorient, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.03 PPG, Lorient on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Lorient have gone 4W 7D 9L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.36 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Lorient
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Lorient in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 10W 10D 19L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Lorient have gone 12W 14D 13L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lorient away?
Auxerre's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.40 PPG; Lorient away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Lorient runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre's record when hosting Lorient specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
1
Draws
1
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lorient?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Lorient have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Lorient 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lorient?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Lorient see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 40%, Lorient 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 35% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 40% of games; Lorient in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Lorient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Auxerre's recent matches and 35% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 35% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Lorient tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lorient in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.