VPS 0-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VPS at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees SJK travel to Elisa Stadion to take on VPS. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 May 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, SJK have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.62 xG and SJK 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.828 / defence 1.157 | SJK attack 0.806 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.331. SJK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing VPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 VPS games / 28 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 45% | Draw 27% | SJK 28%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | SJK 3.57. VPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VPS are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Elisa Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 45% | Draw 27% | SJK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG VPS 1.62 / SJK 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.828 / def 1.157 | SJK attack 0.806 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: VPS (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.24
SJK xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs SJK kick off?
VPS vs SJK kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Elisa Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs SJK?
VPS 0 - 1 SJK.
Where is VPS vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Elisa Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs SJK part of?
VPS vs SJK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 45% chance of winning, SJK a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VPS and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VPS and SJK in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. SJK away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VPS's attack at 0.83x the league average against SJK's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.76
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
VPS xG
Total xG
2.87
1.24
SJK xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
6%
18.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are VPS and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for VPS and 1.24 for SJK, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Pre-Season
SJK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
VPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when VPS won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting SJK specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
1
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, SJK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when VPS 1-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between VPS and SJK?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as SJK defy the odds to beat VPS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat VPS 0-1 at Elisa Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.62 xG and SJK 1.24 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VPS fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.83 / defence 1.16 against SJK attack 0.81 / defence 1.38, drawn from 6/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 45% | Draw 27% | SJK 28%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SJK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.