VPS 0-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VPS host KuPS at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Lemonsoft Stadion this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, KuPS stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour KuPS — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VPS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, KuPS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
KuPS trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 57% versus KuPS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 67% | KuPS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.18 xG and KuPS 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.935 / defence 1.223 | KuPS attack 0.948 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.433. Data: 21 VPS games / 43 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 26% | Draw 27% | KuPS 47%. Fair-value odds: VPS 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | KuPS 2.13. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 60% | KuPS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 26% | Draw 27% | KuPS 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG VPS 1.18 / KuPS 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.935 / def 1.223 | KuPS attack 0.948 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: KuPS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.66
KuPS xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs KuPS kick off?
VPS vs KuPS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs KuPS?
VPS 0 - 1 KuPS.
Where is VPS vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs KuPS part of?
VPS vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 26% chance of winning, KuPS a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both VPS and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VPS and KuPS in?
VPS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. KuPS (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VPS's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
26%
3.86
27%
3.73
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
VPS xG
Total xG
2.84
1.66
KuPS xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
5%
20.33
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are VPS and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for VPS and 1.66 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS's recent record stands at 6W 4D 11L from 21 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 3L across 21 games — 2.10 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VPS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VPS have managed 1W 3D 6L from 10 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.05 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
KuPS's away record stands at 5W 2D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of KuPS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.67 scored and 0.76 conceded. VPS's scoring rate against KuPS's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: KuPS in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and KuPS in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while KuPS have gone 13W 5D 3L in their last 21 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 0.60 PPG; KuPS away: 1.70 PPG.
Have VPS or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, KuPS in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
VPS's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VPS
2
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 3, KuPS have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VPS and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when KuPS 3-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 60%, KuPS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (VPS) and 50% (KuPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VPS have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of VPS's games and 60% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of VPS's matches and 50% of KuPS's.
Do VPS and KuPS tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, KuPS in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out VPS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat VPS 0-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.18 xG and KuPS 1.66 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VPS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against KuPS attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 21/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 26% | Draw 27% | KuPS 47%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 67%, KuPS 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
KuPS's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. KuPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.