VPS 3-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 17 as VPS welcome Ilves to Elisa Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's home record at Elisa Stadion: 0W 2D 5L from 7 Veikkausliiga appearances (0.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.29 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elisa Stadion this season.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (VPS) versus 1.30 (Ilves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 69%.
Ilves trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 56% and Ilves 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VPS 75% | Ilves 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.21 xG and Ilves 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.797 / defence 1.319 | Ilves attack 0.960 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.451. VPS's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 VPS games / 38 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 25% | Draw 23% | Ilves 52%. Fair-value odds: VPS 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Ilves 1.92. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 57% | Ilves 70% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Elisa Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 25% | Draw 23% | Ilves 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG VPS 1.21 / Ilves 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.797 / def 1.319 | Ilves attack 0.960 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Ilves (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Ilves xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Ilves kick off?
VPS vs Ilves kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Elisa Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Ilves?
VPS 3 - 0 Ilves.
Where is VPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Elisa Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Ilves part of?
VPS vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 25% chance of winning, Ilves a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both VPS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VPS and Ilves in?
VPS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Ilves (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates VPS's attack at 0.80x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
25%
3.98
23%
4.38
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
VPS xG
Total xG
3.05
1.84
Ilves xG
3.98
25%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
4%
24.99
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are VPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for VPS and 1.84 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS's recent record stands at 5W 2D 9L from 16 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 6L across 16 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.06 PPG, Ilves on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VPS have managed 0W 2D 5L from 7 games — 0.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.06 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Ilves's away record stands at 1W 5D 1L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.44 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Ilves have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Ilves away?
Ilves's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 0.29 PPG; Ilves away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VPS and Ilves runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when VPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VPS 3-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Ilves?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 57%, Ilves 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (VPS) and 57% (Ilves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VPS have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of VPS's games and 71% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of VPS's matches and 57% of Ilves's.
Do VPS and Ilves tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ilves in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VPS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ilves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Ilves 3-0 at Elisa Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.21 xG and Ilves 1.84 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. VPS beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ilves landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.80 / defence 1.32 against Ilves attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 25% | Draw 23% | Ilves 52%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a VPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 75%, Ilves 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.06 PPG, Ilves 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.