VPS 0-3 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lemonsoft Stadion plays host to VPS versus Haka in Veikkausliiga, Conference League Play-offs - Final. Kick-off: Wednesday 26 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
VPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, VPS have posted 3W 2D 5L at Lemonsoft Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lemonsoft Stadion this season.
Haka (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
VPS half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Haka half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 55% versus Haka 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 66% | Haka 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.39 xG and Haka 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.868 / defence 1.164 | Haka attack 1.022 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. Data: 22 VPS games / 44 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 30% | Draw 25% | Haka 45%. Fair-value odds: VPS 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Haka 2.22. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 60% | Haka 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Conference League Play-offs - Final | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 30% | Draw 25% | Haka 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG VPS 1.39 / Haka 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.868 / def 1.164 | Haka attack 1.022 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Haka (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Haka xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Haka kick off?
VPS vs Haka kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 26 October 2022 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Haka?
VPS 0 - 3 Haka.
Where is VPS vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Haka part of?
VPS vs Haka is a Conference League Play-offs - Final fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 30% chance of winning, Haka a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both VPS and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VPS and Haka in?
VPS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VPS's attack rating (0.87) and Haka's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haka's attack (1.02x) against VPS's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
30%
3.29
25%
4.01
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
VPS xG
Total xG
3.12
1.72
Haka xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
5%
18.44
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are VPS and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for VPS and 1.72 for Haka, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VPS come into this having played 29 games, going 12W 5D 12L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.76 PPG from 29 outings (15W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for VPS against 1.76 for Haka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
VPS's home form reads 3W 3D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.41 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VPS are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.59 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Current Season
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Haka in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 12W 5D 12L in their last 29 games (1.41 PPG), while Haka have gone 15W 6D 8L in their last 29 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Haka away?
Haka's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 0.92 PPG; Haka away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haka won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VPS have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
1
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, Haka have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when VPS 1-0 Haka.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Haka?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 54%, Haka 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (VPS) and 46% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Haka in 38%; VPS have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of VPS's recent matches and 46% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of VPS's recent games and 46% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and Haka tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Haka in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haka run riot with a 0-3 hammering of VPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat VPS 0-3 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Conference League Play-offs - Final, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.39 xG and Haka 1.72 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. VPS fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Haka outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against Haka attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 30% | Draw 25% | Haka 45%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 66%, Haka 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Haka's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.41 PPG, Haka 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.