VPS 3-3 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Elisa Stadion plays host to VPS versus Haka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 23 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
VPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VPS have posted 0W 1D 5L at Elisa Stadion — 0.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.17 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elisa Stadion this season.
Haka (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
VPS half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
Haka half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 57% and Haka 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VPS 71% | Haka 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.04 xG and Haka 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.642 / defence 1.239 | Haka attack 1.003 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.441. VPS's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 VPS games / 36 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 22% | Draw 24% | Haka 55%. Fair-value odds: VPS 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Haka 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Haka (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VPS 50% | Haka 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Elisa Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 22% | Draw 24% | Haka 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG VPS 1.04 / Haka 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.642 / def 1.239 | Haka attack 1.003 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Haka (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Haka xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Haka kick off?
VPS vs Haka kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Elisa Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Haka?
VPS 3 - 3 Haka.
Where is VPS vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Elisa Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Haka part of?
VPS vs Haka is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 22% chance of winning, Haka a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VPS and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VPS and Haka in?
VPS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Haka (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VPS's attack rating (0.64) and Haka's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haka's attack (1.00x) against VPS's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 14/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
22%
4.63
24%
4.26
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
VPS xG
Total xG
2.83
1.79
Haka xG
4.63
22%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
4%
27.76
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are VPS and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for VPS and 1.79 for Haka, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Haka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VPS come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 1D 8L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for VPS against 1.50 for Haka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
VPS's home form reads 0W 1D 5L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.17 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.14 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VPS are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.57 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Haka in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 5W 1D 8L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Haka have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Haka away?
Haka's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 0.17 PPG; Haka away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haka won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VPS have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
1
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, Haka have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when VPS 1-0 Haka.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Haka?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 50%, Haka 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VPS) and 67% (Haka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haka in 33%; VPS have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of VPS's recent matches and 50% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of VPS's matches and 67% of Haka's.
Do VPS and Haka tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haka in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VPS and Haka share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS and Haka finished level at 3-3 at Elisa Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.04 xG and Haka 1.79 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. VPS beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haka outscored their 1.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.64 / defence 1.24 against Haka attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 22% | Draw 24% | Haka 55%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 71%, Haka 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Haka's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.14 PPG, Haka 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.