SJK 1-0 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as SJK take on KuPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OmaSP Stadion plays host to SJK versus KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at OmaSP Stadion, SJK have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SJK are significantly better at OmaSP Stadion than their overall form suggests.
KuPS have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, KuPS are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 46% versus KuPS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | KuPS 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 0.71 xG and KuPS 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.979 / defence 0.801 | KuPS attack 0.987 / defence 0.583. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.130. KuPS's defence strength of 0.583 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 SJK games / 31 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 23% | Draw 43% | KuPS 34%. Fair-value odds: SJK 4.35 | Draw 2.33 | KuPS 2.94. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.60. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.60 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — SJK's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 23% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. This conflicts with form data: SJK 70% | KuPS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 23% | Draw 43% | KuPS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 34% | xG SJK 0.71 / KuPS 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.979 / def 0.801 | KuPS attack 0.987 / def 0.583 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.89
KuPS xG
34%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs KuPS kick off?
SJK vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 26 May 2023 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs KuPS?
SJK 1 - 0 KuPS.
Where is SJK vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs KuPS part of?
SJK vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 23% chance of winning, KuPS a 34% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SJK vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both SJK and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and KuPS in?
SJK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. KuPS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SJK's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (0.99x) against SJK's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 29/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
23%
4.30
43%
2.34
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
SJK xG
Total xG
1.60
0.89
KuPS xG
4.30
23%
Home win
2.34
43%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.97
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.2 | 18.0 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.9%.
How many goals are SJK and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for SJK and 0.89 for KuPS, a combined total of 1.60.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SJK's recent record stands at 24W 10D 20L from 54 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 34W 13D 7L across 54 games — 2.13 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SJK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SJK have managed 14W 7D 5L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 16W 4D 6L across 26 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.65 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and KuPS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while KuPS have gone 34W 13D 7L in their last 54 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.88 PPG; KuPS away: 2.00 PPG.
Have SJK or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, KuPS in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SJK
4
Draws
6
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 0, KuPS have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SJK and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between SJK and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 62%, KuPS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (SJK) and 46% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SJK's games and 54% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of SJK's recent games and 46% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and KuPS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, KuPS in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SJK defy the odds to beat KuPS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat KuPS 1-0 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 0.71 xG and KuPS 0.89 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KuPS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.98 / defence 0.80 against KuPS attack 0.99 / defence 0.58, drawn from 29/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 23% | Draw 43% | KuPS 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a SJK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, KuPS 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with SJK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SJK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.