SJK 3-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OmaSP Stadion plays host to SJK versus KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 September 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OmaSP Stadion, SJK have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KuPS have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for SJK, 1.80 for KuPS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 49% versus KuPS 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 51% | KuPS 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.44 xG and KuPS 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.253 / defence 0.931 | KuPS attack 0.900 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. SJK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 SJK games / 44 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 41% | Draw 28% | KuPS 31%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | KuPS 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SJK 70% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 41% | Draw 28% | KuPS 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG SJK 1.44 / KuPS 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.253 / def 0.931 | KuPS attack 0.900 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: SJK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.22
KuPS xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs KuPS kick off?
SJK vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 28 September 2022 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs KuPS?
SJK 3 - 1 KuPS.
Where is SJK vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs KuPS part of?
SJK vs KuPS is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 41% chance of winning, KuPS a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SJK and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and KuPS in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. KuPS (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SJK's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (0.90x) against SJK's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.59
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SJK xG
Total xG
2.66
1.22
KuPS xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
7%
13.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SJK and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SJK and 1.22 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SJK's recent record stands at 23W 9D 17L from 49 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 6L across 49 games — 2.14 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SJK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SJK have managed 13W 6D 4L from 23 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 15W 4D 4L across 23 trips, a 2.13 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.67 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and KuPS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 23W 9D 17L in their last 49 games (1.59 PPG), while KuPS have gone 31W 12D 6L in their last 49 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.96 PPG; KuPS away: 2.13 PPG.
Have SJK or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, KuPS in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SJK
4
Draws
6
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 0, KuPS have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SJK and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between SJK and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 65%, KuPS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (SJK) and 48% (KuPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SJK's games and 56% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SJK's matches and 48% of KuPS's.
Do SJK and KuPS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, KuPS in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over KuPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat KuPS 3-1 at OmaSP Stadion, Championship Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.44 xG and KuPS 1.22 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against KuPS attack 0.90 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 41% | Draw 28% | KuPS 31%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 51%, KuPS 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.59. Form was overturned, with SJK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. KuPS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.