SJK 2-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OmaSP Stadion plays host to SJK versus KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OmaSP Stadion, SJK have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — SJK are significantly better at OmaSP Stadion than their overall form suggests.
KuPS have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, KuPS are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 40% versus KuPS 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | KuPS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.43 xG and KuPS 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.545 / defence 1.178 | KuPS attack 1.128 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.080. SJK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.545 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 SJK games / 22 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 37% | Draw 25% | KuPS 38%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | KuPS 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SJK 50% | KuPS 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 37% | Draw 25% | KuPS 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG SJK 1.43 / KuPS 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.545 / def 1.178 | KuPS attack 1.128 / def 0.958 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: KuPS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.44
KuPS xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs KuPS kick off?
SJK vs KuPS kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs KuPS?
SJK 2 - 2 KuPS.
Where is SJK vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs KuPS part of?
SJK vs KuPS is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 37% chance of winning, KuPS a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SJK and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and KuPS in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. KuPS (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SJK's attacking strength (1.54x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.13x) against SJK's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
37%
2.68
25%
4.00
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
SJK xG
Total xG
2.86
1.44
KuPS xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.26
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SJK and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for SJK and 1.44 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SJK's recent record stands at 13W 5D 7L from 25 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 17W 5D 3L across 25 games — 2.24 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SJK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SJK have managed 7W 3D 2L from 12 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 9W 1D 2L across 12 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.72 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: SJK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; KuPS in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and KuPS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 13W 5D 7L in their last 25 games (1.76 PPG), while KuPS have gone 17W 5D 3L in their last 25 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 2.00 PPG; KuPS away: 2.33 PPG.
Have SJK or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, KuPS in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SJK
4
Draws
6
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 0, KuPS have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SJK and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between SJK and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 58%, KuPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (SJK) and 42% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of SJK's recent matches and 50% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SJK vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of SJK's recent games and 42% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and KuPS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, KuPS in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK and KuPS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK and KuPS finished level at 2-2 at OmaSP Stadion, Championship Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.43 xG and KuPS 1.44 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.54 / defence 1.18 against KuPS attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 37% | Draw 25% | KuPS 38%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, KuPS 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
KuPS's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KuPS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.