SJK 0-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OmaSP Stadion plays host to SJK versus KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 10 June 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.08 xG and KuPS 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.846 / defence 1.099 | KuPS attack 1.032 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 0.916 / away 1.598. KuPS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing SJK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 SJK games / 6 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 22% | Draw 24% | KuPS 54%. Fair-value odds: SJK 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | KuPS 1.85. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 22% | Draw 24% | KuPS 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG SJK 1.08 / KuPS 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.846 / def 1.099 | KuPS attack 1.032 / def 1.397 | league avg home 0.916 / away 1.598 • Poisson stance: KuPS (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.81
KuPS xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs KuPS kick off?
SJK vs KuPS kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 10 June 2021 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs KuPS?
SJK 0 - 1 KuPS.
Where is SJK vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs KuPS part of?
SJK vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 22% chance of winning, KuPS a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SJK and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and KuPS in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SJK's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.03x) against SJK's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
22%
4.52
24%
4.21
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
SJK xG
Total xG
2.89
1.81
KuPS xG
4.52
22%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
4%
27.67
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SJK and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for SJK and 1.81 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Pre-Season
KuPS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SJK
4
Draws
6
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 0, KuPS have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SJK and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between SJK and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out SJK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat SJK 0-1 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.08 xG and KuPS 1.81 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SJK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. KuPS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against KuPS attack 1.03 / defence 1.40, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 22% | Draw 24% | KuPS 54%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.