SJK 1-1 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter Turku at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Inter Turku fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Inter Turku travel to OmaSP Stadion to take on SJK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 June 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SJK — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's home record at OmaSP Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter Turku stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Inter Turku have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SJK 1.80 PPG, Inter Turku 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Inter Turku in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 44% versus Inter Turku 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 52% | Inter Turku 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.25 xG and Inter Turku 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.942 / defence 0.926 | Inter Turku attack 1.226 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.308. Inter Turku have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 SJK games / 32 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 31% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 42%. Fair-value odds: SJK 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Inter Turku 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter Turku are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter Turku offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SJK 60% | Inter Turku 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jun 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 31% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG SJK 1.25 / Inter Turku 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.942 / def 0.926 | Inter Turku attack 1.226 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Inter Turku (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Inter Turku xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Inter Turku kick off?
SJK vs Inter Turku kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 June 2022 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Inter Turku?
SJK 1 - 1 Inter Turku.
Where is SJK vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Inter Turku part of?
SJK vs Inter Turku is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 31% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Inter Turku the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SJK and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Inter Turku?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and Inter Turku in?
SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Inter Turku (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SJK's attack at 0.94x the league average against Inter Turku's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter Turku's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Turku Win
31%
3.22
27%
3.72
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
SJK xG
Total xG
2.73
1.49
Inter Turku xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
7%
14.23
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SJK and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for SJK and 1.49 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Inter Turku?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SJK come into this having played 27 games, going 14W 6D 7L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter Turku sit at 1.67 PPG from 27 outings (14W 3D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SJK on 1.78 PPG, Inter Turku on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SJK's home form reads 7W 4D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter Turku have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (6W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.67 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Inter Turku
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 14W 6D 7L in their last 27 games (1.78 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 14W 3D 10L in their last 27 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Inter Turku away?
SJK's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.92 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.46 PPG.
Have SJK or Inter Turku been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Inter Turku in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Inter Turku specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SJK
2
Draws
4
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 4, Inter Turku have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when Inter Turku 1-1 SJK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 62%, Inter Turku 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (SJK) and 54% (Inter Turku). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Inter Turku?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SJK's games and 54% of Inter Turku's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SJK's matches and 54% of Inter Turku's.
Do SJK and Inter Turku tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK and Inter Turku share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as SJK and Inter Turku drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.25 xG and Inter Turku 1.49 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Inter Turku attack 1.23 / defence 0.99, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 31% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 42%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 52%, Inter Turku 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter Turku's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.78 PPG, Inter Turku 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SJK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.