SJK 1-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to OmaSP Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
SJK's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at OmaSP Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SJK are significantly better at OmaSP Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for SJK against 1.40 for Ilves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 46% versus Ilves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | Ilves 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.21 xG and Ilves 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.036 / defence 0.864 | Ilves attack 0.850 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.132. Data: 27 SJK games / 27 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 41% | Draw 37% | Ilves 22%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.44 | Draw 2.70 | Ilves 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SJK at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: SJK 70% | Ilves 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 41% | Draw 37% | Ilves 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG SJK 1.21 / Ilves 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.036 / def 0.864 | Ilves attack 0.850 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: SJK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
SJK xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Ilves xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Ilves kick off?
SJK vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Ilves?
SJK 1 - 0 Ilves.
Where is SJK vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Ilves part of?
SJK vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 41% chance of winning, Ilves a 22% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both SJK and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and Ilves in?
SJK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Ilves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.04x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.85x) against SJK's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
41%
2.42
37%
2.70
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
SJK xG
Total xG
2.04
0.83
Ilves xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are SJK and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for SJK and 0.83 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SJK's recent record stands at 24W 10D 20L from 54 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 24L across 54 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for SJK against 1.30 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SJK have managed 14W 7D 5L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 6W 8D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.33 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Ilves in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Ilves have gone 20W 10D 24L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Ilves away?
SJK's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.88 PPG; Ilves away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SJK
6
Draws
1
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 3, Ilves have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Ilves?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 62%, Ilves 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (SJK) and 54% (Ilves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SJK's games and 58% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SJK's matches and 54% of Ilves's.
Do SJK and Ilves tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ilves in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Ilves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Ilves 1-0 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.21 xG and Ilves 0.83 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ilves landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.04 / defence 0.86 against Ilves attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 41% | Draw 37% | Ilves 22%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, Ilves 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.52 PPG, Ilves 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.