SJK 1-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to OmaSP Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 14 June 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 0.85 xG and Ilves 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.734 / defence 1.029 | Ilves attack 0.773 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 0.888 / away 1.576. SJK's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ilves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing SJK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 SJK games / 6 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 25% | Draw 29% | Ilves 46%. Fair-value odds: SJK 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Ilves 2.17. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 14 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 25% | Draw 29% | Ilves 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG SJK 0.85 / Ilves 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.734 / def 1.029 | Ilves attack 0.773 / def 1.305 | league avg home 0.888 / away 1.576 • Poisson stance: Ilves (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Ilves xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Ilves kick off?
SJK vs Ilves kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 14 June 2021 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Ilves?
SJK 1 - 0 Ilves.
Where is SJK vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Ilves part of?
SJK vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 25% chance of winning, Ilves a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both SJK and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and Ilves in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 0.73x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.77x) against SJK's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
25%
3.97
29%
3.44
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
SJK xG
Total xG
2.10
1.25
Ilves xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 15.3 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are SJK and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for SJK and 1.25 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Pre-Season
Ilves
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SJK
6
Draws
1
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 3, Ilves have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Ilves?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as SJK defy the odds to beat Ilves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Ilves 1-0 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 0.85 xG and Ilves 1.25 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ilves landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.73 / defence 1.03 against Ilves attack 0.77 / defence 1.30, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 25% | Draw 29% | Ilves 46%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a SJK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.