SJK 4-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Haka travel to OmaSP Stadion to take on SJK. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 August 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SJK stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK at OmaSP Stadion this season: 4W 2D 2L from 8 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Haka have posted 3W 1D 5L from 9 away outings — 1.11 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
On current form, SJK have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
SJK in-play and half-time data (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Haka in-play and half-time data (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 33% versus Haka 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SJK 27% | Haka 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.25 xG and Haka 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.249 / defence 1.176 | Haka attack 0.783 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 0.892 / away 1.143. Data: 15 SJK games / 16 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 41% | Draw 28% | Haka 31%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Haka 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: SJK 50% | Haka 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 41% | Draw 28% | Haka 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG SJK 1.25 / Haka 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.249 / def 1.176 | Haka attack 0.783 / def 1.122 | league avg home 0.892 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: SJK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Haka xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Haka kick off?
SJK vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 27 August 2021 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Haka?
SJK 4 - 0 Haka.
Where is SJK vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Haka part of?
SJK vs Haka is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 41% chance of winning, Haka a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SJK and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SJK and Haka in?
SJK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Haka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SJK's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.55
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
SJK xG
Total xG
2.30
1.05
Haka xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are SJK and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for SJK and 1.05 for Haka, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, SJK have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 8W 3D 4L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 4W 3D 8L from 15 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haka.
Venue Form
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
On the road, Haka have gone 3W 1D 4L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 0.87 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: SJK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Haka in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 games (1.80 PPG), while Haka have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Haka away?
SJK's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.75 PPG; Haka away: 1.25 PPG.
Have SJK or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Haka in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when SJK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Haka specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SJK
2
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 5, Haka have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Haka 2-3 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Haka?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 50%, Haka 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SJK) and 50% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Haka in 38%; Haka in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SJK's recent matches and 38% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SJK vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SJK's recent games and 50% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Haka tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Haka in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SJK run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Haka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Haka 4-0 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.25 xG and Haka 1.05 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haka landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.25 / defence 1.18 against Haka attack 0.78 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 41% | Draw 28% | Haka 31%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 27%, Haka 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haka's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. SJK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.