Mariehamn 1-3 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Mariehamn welcome VPS to Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs, Mariehamn have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.46 xG and VPS 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.959 / defence 0.839 | VPS attack 1.297 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.278. VPS have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Mariehamn games / 8 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 38% | Draw 27% | VPS 35%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | VPS 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mariehamn as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 38% | Draw 27% | VPS 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Mariehamn 1.46 / VPS 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.959 / def 0.839 | VPS attack 1.297 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.39
VPS xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs VPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs VPS kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Mariehamn 1 - 3 VPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs.
What competition is Mariehamn vs VPS part of?
Mariehamn vs VPS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 38% chance of winning, VPS a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mariehamn and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and VPS in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Mariehamn home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.96x the league average against VPS's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.64
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.85
1.39
VPS xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
9%
10.65
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.39 for VPS, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
VPS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: VPS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jun 2025, when VPS won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting VPS specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, VPS have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when VPS 4-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
VPS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Mariehamn 1-3 at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.46 xG and VPS 1.39 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VPS outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against VPS attack 1.30 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 38% | Draw 27% | VPS 35%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual VPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.