Mariehamn 0-2 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 46%, yet in-form Mariehamn provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mariehamn vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mariehamn and SJK meet at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 June 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's home record at Wiklöf Holding Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SJK have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SJK's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Mariehamn's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of SJK's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mariehamn lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Mariehamn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Mariehamn half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
SJK half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 48% versus SJK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | SJK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.66 xG and SJK 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.896 / defence 1.116 | SJK attack 1.039 / defence 0.578. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.044. SJK's defence strength of 0.578 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Mariehamn games / 32 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 17% | Draw 37% | SJK 46%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 5.88 | Draw 2.70 | SJK 2.17. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mariehamn (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Mariehamn 70% | SJK 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 17% | Draw 37% | SJK 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Mariehamn 0.66 / SJK 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.896 / def 1.116 | SJK attack 1.039 / def 0.578 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: SJK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.21
SJK xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs SJK kick off?
Mariehamn vs SJK kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
Mariehamn 0 - 2 SJK.
Where is Mariehamn vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs SJK part of?
Mariehamn vs SJK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 17% chance of winning, SJK a 46% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Mariehamn and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and SJK?
Record (3 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 0 | SJK 2W.
What form are Mariehamn and SJK in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. SJK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.90x the league average against SJK's defence at 0.58x — combine the two and it projects 0.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SJK's attack (1.04x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
17%
5.88
37%
2.74
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
1.86
1.21
SJK xG
5.88
17%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
5%
19.71
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 18.7 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.21 for SJK, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 10D 26L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SJK sit at 1.52 PPG from 54 outings (24W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Mariehamn against 1.52 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mariehamn's home form reads 9W 6D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, SJK have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (9W 3D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SJK's season.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.43 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
SJK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and SJK in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 18W 10D 26L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while SJK have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or SJK away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.22 PPG; SJK away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SJK have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-4 on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
0
Draws
8
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, SJK have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when SJK 3-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 52%, SJK 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mariehamn) and 37% (SJK).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 33% of games; SJK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 33% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Mariehamn's recent games and 37% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and SJK tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SJK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Mariehamn 0-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.66 xG and SJK 1.21 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against SJK attack 1.04 / defence 0.58, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 17% | Draw 37% | SJK 46%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, SJK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.19 PPG, SJK 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. SJK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.