Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KuPS make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Mariehamn (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Wiklöf Holding Arena this season.
KuPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. KuPS are 0.60 PPG clear of Mariehamn in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mariehamn lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with KuPS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
KuPS — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 33% versus KuPS 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 48% | KuPS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.02 xG and KuPS 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.922 / defence 0.833 | KuPS attack 0.994 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.363. KuPS's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Mariehamn games / 27 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 33% | Draw 29% | KuPS 38%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | KuPS 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 30% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 33% | Draw 29% | KuPS 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Mariehamn 1.02 / KuPS 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.922 / def 0.833 | KuPS attack 0.994 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: KuPS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.13
KuPS xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs KuPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs KuPS kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Mariehamn 1 - 1 KuPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs KuPS part of?
Mariehamn vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 33% chance of winning, KuPS a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mariehamn and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
Record (1 meetings): Mariehamn 0W | Draws 0 | KuPS 1W.
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. KuPS (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.92x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (0.99x) against Mariehamn's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
33%
3.08
29%
3.39
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.15
1.13
KuPS xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.13 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 9W 3D 15L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 17W 7D 3L from 27 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.00 PPG from 13 outings (4W 1D 8L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 9W 2D 2L from 13 away games — 2.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.70 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 9W 3D 15L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while KuPS have gone 17W 7D 3L in their last 27 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.00 PPG; KuPS away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, KuPS in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
3
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, KuPS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 31%, KuPS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mariehamn) and 46% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 38%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 54% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mariehamn's recent games and 46% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and KuPS tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, KuPS in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn and KuPS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and KuPS finished level at 1-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.02 xG and KuPS 1.13 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.92 / defence 0.83 against KuPS attack 0.99 / defence 0.80, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 33% | Draw 29% | KuPS 38%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 48%, KuPS 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.