Mariehamn 1-1 Honka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Honka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wiklöf Holding Arena plays host to Mariehamn versus Honka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 18 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mariehamn have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 3W 1D 6L at Wiklöf Holding Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Wiklöf Holding Arena this season.
Honka (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Honka have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Mariehamn, 1.20 for Honka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mariehamn, 1 for Honka and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Mariehamn half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Honka half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 33% versus Honka 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 48% | Honka 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.03 xG and Honka 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.847 / defence 0.867 | Honka attack 0.862 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.328. Data: 24 Mariehamn games / 24 Honka games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 36% | Draw 31% | Honka 34%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Honka 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mariehamn at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 30% | Honka 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 36% | Draw 31% | Honka 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Mariehamn 1.03 / Honka 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.847 / def 0.867 | Honka attack 0.862 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Honka xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Honka kick off?
Mariehamn vs Honka kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Honka?
Mariehamn 1 - 1 Honka.
Where is Mariehamn vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Honka part of?
Mariehamn vs Honka is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 36% chance of winning, Honka a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Mariehamn and Honka will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Honka?
Record (3 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 1 | Honka 1W.
What form are Mariehamn and Honka in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Honka (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.85x the league average against Honka's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Honka's attack (0.86x) against Mariehamn's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
36%
2.80
31%
3.27
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.02
0.99
Honka xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Mariehamn and 0.99 for Honka, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Honka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 9W 3D 15L from 27 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Honka, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 12L across 27 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Honka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Mariehamn against 1.22 for Honka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 4W 1D 8L from 13 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Honka's away record stands at 4W 3D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Honka are on 1.41 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Honka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Honka in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 9W 3D 15L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while Honka have gone 9W 6D 12L in their last 27 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Honka away?
Honka's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.00 PPG; Honka away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Honka go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Honka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
3
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Honka?
From 7 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, Honka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Honka last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2023, when Mariehamn 0-1 Honka.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Honka?
Honka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Honka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 31%, Honka 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mariehamn) and 54% (Honka).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 62% of games; Honka in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Honka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 62% of Honka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Honka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mariehamn's recent games and 54% of Honka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Honka tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Honka in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn and Honka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and Honka finished level at 1-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.03 xG and Honka 0.99 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.85 / defence 0.87 against Honka attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 36% | Draw 31% | Honka 34%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 48%, Honka 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Honka's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.11 PPG, Honka 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.