Mariehamn 2-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 42%, yet in-form Haka provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mariehamn vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Mariehamn welcome Haka to Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mariehamn are significantly better at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs than their overall form suggests.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Haka — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mariehamn register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Haka in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Mariehamn have won 0, Haka 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jun 2022, ended 2–3 with Haka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mariehamn trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Haka trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 46% versus Haka 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 46% | Haka 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.65 xG and Haka 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.888 / defence 0.935 | Haka attack 1.114 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.399. Data: 38 Mariehamn games / 38 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 42% | Draw 24% | Haka 34%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Haka 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mariehamn at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haka (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 80% | Haka 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 42% | Draw 24% | Haka 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Mariehamn 1.65 / Haka 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.888 / def 0.935 | Haka attack 1.114 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Haka xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Haka kick off?
Mariehamn vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Mariehamn 2 - 0 Haka.
Where is Mariehamn vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Haka part of?
Mariehamn vs Haka is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 42% chance of winning, Haka a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mariehamn and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
Record (1 meetings): Mariehamn 0W | Draws 0 | Haka 1W.
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Haka (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
42%
2.36
24%
4.22
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.11
1.46
Haka xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.46 for Haka, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 12W 9D 22L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 17W 9D 17L from 43 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.05 PPG, Haka on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
On the road, Haka have gone 8W 3D 9L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Haka have gone 17W 9D 17L in their last 43 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Haka away?
Haka's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.15 PPG; Haka away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Haka runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
3
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 4, Haka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Haka?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 50%, Haka 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mariehamn) and 60% (Haka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haka in 35%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 45% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mariehamn's matches and 60% of Haka's.
Do Mariehamn and Haka tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Haka in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Haka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Haka 2-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.65 xG and Haka 1.46 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Haka landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Haka attack 1.11 / defence 1.18, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 42% | Draw 24% | Haka 34%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 46%, Haka 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Haka's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.05 PPG, Haka 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.