Mariehamn 3-1 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Mariehamn take on AC Oulu.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AC Oulu make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.97 xG and AC Oulu 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.970 / defence 1.150 | AC Oulu attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.868 / away 1.194. Data: 1 Mariehamn games / 1 AC Oulu games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 26% | Draw 37% | AC Oulu 36%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | AC Oulu 2.78. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 26% | Draw 37% | AC Oulu 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Mariehamn 0.97 / AC Oulu 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.970 / def 1.150 | AC Oulu attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.868 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.17
AC Oulu xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs AC Oulu kick off?
Mariehamn vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Mariehamn 3 - 1 AC Oulu.
Where is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu part of?
Mariehamn vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 26% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 36% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mariehamn and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and AC Oulu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and AC Oulu in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.97) and AC Oulu's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (0.85x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.82
37%
2.67
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.13
1.17
AC Oulu xG
3.82
26%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.27
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.17 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
AC Oulu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
2
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 4, AC Oulu have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat AC Oulu 3-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.97 xG and AC Oulu 1.17 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against AC Oulu attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 26% | Draw 37% | AC Oulu 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.