Lahti 3-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lahti vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lahti host Ilves at Lahden Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 10 June 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lahti 1.05 xG and Ilves 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lahti attack 1.092 / defence 1.103 | Ilves attack 0.811 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 0.916 / away 1.598. Data: 5 Lahti games / 5 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lahti 27% | Draw 27% | Ilves 45%. Fair-value odds: Lahti 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Ilves 2.22. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lahti vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lahden Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lahti 27% | Draw 27% | Ilves 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Lahti 1.05 / Ilves 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lahti attack 1.092 / def 1.103 | Ilves attack 0.811 / def 1.051 | league avg home 0.916 / away 1.598 • Poisson stance: Ilves (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Lahti xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Ilves xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lahti vs Ilves kick off?
Lahti vs Ilves kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 10 June 2021 at Lahden Stadion.
What was the final score in Lahti vs Ilves?
Lahti 3 - 1 Ilves.
Where is Lahti vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Lahden Stadion.
What competition is Lahti vs Ilves part of?
Lahti vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Lahti vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Lahti a 27% chance of winning, Ilves a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lahti vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lahti and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Lahti vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lahti and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lahti and Ilves in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lahti's attack rating (1.09) and Ilves's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Lahti's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
27%
3.67
27%
3.65
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Lahti xG
Total xG
2.48
1.43
Ilves xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
7%
15.32
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lahti vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lahti and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Lahti and 1.43 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Lahti vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lahti
Pre-Season
Ilves
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lahti and Ilves runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Lahti won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lahti's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lahti
4
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lahti and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Lahti have won 2, Ilves have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lahti and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Ilves 1-0 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between Lahti and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lahti home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Lahti cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ilves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lahti beat Ilves 3-1 at Lahden Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lahti 1.05 xG and Ilves 1.43 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lahti beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lahti attack 1.09 / defence 1.10 against Ilves attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lahti 27% | Draw 27% | Ilves 45%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Lahti win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.