KuPS 3-1 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees VPS travel to Väre Areena to take on KuPS. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 April 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KuPS stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Väre Areena, KuPS have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.74 xG and VPS 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.100 / defence 0.747 | VPS attack 1.298 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.458. VPS have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. KuPS's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 26 KuPS games / 4 VPS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: KuPS 45% | Draw 23% | VPS 31%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | VPS 3.23. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 45% | Draw 23% | VPS 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG KuPS 1.74 / VPS 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.100 / def 0.747 | VPS attack 1.298 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: KuPS (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.41
VPS xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs VPS kick off?
KuPS vs VPS kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs VPS?
KuPS 3 - 1 VPS.
Where is KuPS vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs VPS part of?
KuPS vs VPS is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 45% chance of winning, VPS a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both KuPS and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and VPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and VPS in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. KuPS home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KuPS's attack at 1.10x the league average against VPS's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
45%
2.21
23%
4.29
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
KuPS xG
Total xG
3.15
1.41
VPS xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
6%
18.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are KuPS and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for KuPS and 1.41 for VPS, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Pre-Season
VPS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KuPS and VPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS's record when hosting VPS specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
2
Draws
3
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, VPS have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when KuPS 3-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and VPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VPS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat VPS 3-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.74 xG and VPS 1.41 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.10 / defence 0.75 against VPS attack 1.30 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 45% | Draw 23% | VPS 31%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.