KuPS 2-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KuPS and SJK meet at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KuPS have posted 6W 4D 0L at Väre Areena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena.
SJK's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 44% versus SJK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 44% | SJK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.42 xG and SJK 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.122 / defence 0.908 | SJK attack 0.930 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.314. Data: 24 KuPS games / 24 SJK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: KuPS 44% | Draw 26% | SJK 29%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | SJK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: KuPS 40% | SJK 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 44% | Draw 26% | SJK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG KuPS 1.42 / SJK 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.122 / def 0.908 | SJK attack 0.930 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: KuPS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.11
SJK xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs SJK kick off?
KuPS vs SJK kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs SJK?
KuPS 2 - 0 SJK.
Where is KuPS vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs SJK part of?
KuPS vs SJK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 44% chance of winning, SJK a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both KuPS and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and SJK in?
KuPS (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KuPS's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.93x) against KuPS's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.79
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.53
1.11
SJK xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
7%
14.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are KuPS and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for KuPS and 1.11 for SJK, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS come into this having played 27 games, going 17W 7D 3L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SJK sit at 1.78 PPG from 27 outings (14W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.15 PPG for KuPS against 1.78 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
KuPS's home form reads 8W 5D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, SJK have taken 1.64 points per game from 14 outings (7W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.67 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and SJK in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 17W 7D 3L in their last 27 games (2.15 PPG), while SJK have gone 14W 6D 7L in their last 27 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or SJK away?
KuPS's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.07 PPG; SJK away: 1.64 PPG.
Have KuPS or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, SJK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
KuPS
4
Draws
0
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 6, SJK have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and SJK?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (KuPS) and 29% (SJK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (KuPS) and 43% (SJK).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; SJK in 43%; SJK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of KuPS's recent matches and 29% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of KuPS's recent games and 43% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and SJK tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SJK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat SJK 2-0 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.42 xG and SJK 1.11 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SJK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against SJK attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 44% | Draw 26% | SJK 29%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 44%, SJK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
SJK's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KuPS 2.15 PPG, SJK 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KuPS win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.