KuPS 3-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KuPS and SJK meet at Väre Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KuPS have posted 6W 2D 1L at Väre Areena — 2.22 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena.
SJK's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 8 games (62%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. KuPS's 2.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of SJK's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 41% versus SJK 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (KuPS 41% | SJK 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.11 xG and SJK 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.255 / defence 0.922 | SJK attack 0.640 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 0.901 / away 1.132. KuPS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 KuPS games / 17 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 46% | Draw 32% | SJK 22%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | SJK 4.55. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — SJK's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 33% | SJK 12% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 46% | Draw 32% | SJK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG KuPS 1.11 / SJK 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.255 / def 0.922 | SJK attack 0.640 / def 0.981 | league avg home 0.901 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: KuPS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.67
SJK xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs SJK kick off?
KuPS vs SJK kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs SJK?
KuPS 3 - 0 SJK.
Where is KuPS vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs SJK part of?
KuPS vs SJK is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 46% chance of winning, SJK a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both KuPS and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and SJK in?
KuPS (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. SJK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KuPS's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.64x) against KuPS's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.13
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
KuPS xG
Total xG
1.78
0.67
SJK xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are KuPS and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for KuPS and 0.67 for SJK, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS come into this having played 17 games, going 12W 3D 2L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SJK sit at 1.76 PPG from 17 outings (9W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of SJK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
KuPS's home form reads 6W 1D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, SJK have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.29 scored and 0.82 conceded. KuPS's scoring rate against SJK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 29%.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games; SJK in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and SJK in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 12W 3D 2L in their last 17 games (2.29 PPG), while SJK have gone 9W 3D 5L in their last 17 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or SJK away?
KuPS's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.38 PPG; SJK away: 1.62 PPG.
Have KuPS or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, SJK in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
KuPS
4
Draws
0
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 6, SJK have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and SJK?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SJK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (KuPS) and 12% (SJK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for KuPS and 12% for SJK.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; SJK in 62%; SJK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of KuPS's recent matches and 12% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of KuPS's recent games and 12% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and SJK tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, SJK in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KuPS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat SJK 3-0 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.11 xG and SJK 0.67 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.25 / defence 0.92 against SJK attack 0.64 / defence 0.98, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 46% | Draw 32% | SJK 22%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 41%, SJK 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
SJK's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.76. That form edge translated into the three points. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.